Redefining Greatness: Expansion Has Changed the Way To Measure Success

The landscape of the NHL has undergone significant transformations since its inception, especially regarding the odds of players winning the Stanley Cup or individual awards. As the league expanded from its Original Six to the modern-day 32 teams, the chances of individual and team success have shifted dramatically.

Early NHL: The Original Six Era (1942-1967)

During the Original Six era, the NHL consisted of just six teams: the Montreal Canadiens, Toronto Maple Leafs, Detroit Red Wings, Boston Bruins, Chicago Blackhawks, and New York Rangers. With only six teams, each franchise had a 1 in 6 (16.67%) chance of winning the Stanley Cup each year. Similarly, with a limited player pool, the odds of winning individual awards like the Hart Trophy (MVP), Norris Trophy (best defenseman), or Selke Trophy (best defensive forward) were relatively high.

NHL Expansion: 12 Teams (1967-1970)

The 1967 NHL expansion was a pivotal moment, doubling the league’s size to 12 teams. This expansion marked the beginning of a new era, but it also meant that a team’s odds of winning the Stanley Cup dropped to 1 in 12 (8.33%). Individual awards became more competitive as well, with the number of elite players increasing, thus lowering the probability of winning an award.

1970s and 1980s: the 21-Team League

The NHL continued to grow, adding teams in the 1970s, culminating in a 21-team league by 1979. With 21 teams, the odds of winning the Stanley Cup were now 1 in 21 (4.76%), a substantial decrease from the Original Six era. Individual awards became even more challenging to attain, as the number of players grew, making the competition stiffer. The league had become truly continental, with franchises from coast to coast, and international, with a huge infusion of European players, further diluting the concentration of talent.

Modern NHL: 32 Teams (2021-Present)

Since the most recent expansion of 2021, the NHL has 32 teams, meaning a player’s odds of winning the Stanley Cup have dropped to 1 in 32 (3.13%). The competition for individual awards is fiercer than ever, with a vast pool of talent from around the world. In this modern era, elite players can have long, distinguished careers without ever winning the Stanley Cup or major individual awards simply because of the increased competition and the larger number of teams.

Changing Perceptions: Re-Evaluating Success

With these shifts, it is increasingly unfair to judge a player’s career based solely on the number of Stanley Cups or individual awards they have won. In earlier eras, the odds were significantly more favourable, and the number of elite players was smaller, making it easier for top players to accumulate accolades.

This change in landscape has led to debates about the Hall of Fame worthiness of modern players who have never won a Stanley Cup or major individual awards. For example, some fans and media members have questioned whether Shea Weber, despite his stellar career, deserves to be inducted into the Hockey Hall of Fame because “he’s never won a Norris Trophy or Stanley Cup.” Similarly, many argue that Carey Price, one of the most dominant goaltenders of his generation, should not be inducted due to his lack of a Stanley Cup ring. These arguments highlight the need to reassess how success is measured in the current NHL landscape.

Comparison of Odds Across Eras:

Original Six (1942-1967): 1 in 6 chance (16.67%) of winning the Stanley Cup.
12 Teams (1967-1970): 1 in 12 chance (8.33%).
21 Teams (1979-1991): 1 in 21 chance (4.76%).
32 Teams (2021-Present): 1 in 32 chance (3.13%).

Conclusion: A New Perspective

The NHL’s expansion has created a more balanced and competitive league but has also diminished the odds of any one player or team achieving traditional measures of success. Fans and media must recognize these changes and adopt a more nuanced view of what constitutes a Hall of Fame career. A player’s contributions to the game, consistency, leadership, and impact on their teams should be considered alongside, or even above, the traditional measures of Stanley Cups and individual awards. In an era where the odds are stacked against even the most talented, true greatness may not always come with a trophy in hand.

For players like Shea Weber and Carey Price, their legacy should be viewed through the lens of their sustained excellence, leadership, and influence on the game, rather than a checklist of awards and championships. As the NHL continues to grow, these factors will only become more relevant in assessing the true worth of a player’s career.